Prices for both new and used medium and heavy-duty trucks are expected to keep rising due to strong demand driven by a booming economy and ongoing supply chain issues. Manufacturers have struggled with production slowdowns, leading to fewer available units and pushing prices higher.
Over the past few months, truck makers like Peterbilt, Kenworth, Volvo, Freightliner, Mack, and International have all reported significant supply chain disruptions. Parts shortages have forced many to halt production, which has only added to the scarcity of vehicles in the market.
These supply chain problems are not just temporary—they're expected to last well into 2022. As a result, both new and used truck prices are likely to climb, mirroring the trends we've seen in the auto industry over the past year.
The ripple effects of this shortage go beyond just truck prices. Higher costs for trucks will lead to increased freight rates, which can contribute to broader inflation across the economy.
ACT Research, a key player in tracking Class 8 truck orders and sales, recently revised its production outlook downward. This comes as manufacturers continue to face challenges in sourcing parts and maintaining consistent output.
"The story has shifted from abundance to constraint," said Kenny Vieth, president of ACT Research. "It's not just semiconductors—many other components are affected by the pandemic, trade policies, and even weather-related disruptions like the Texas freeze."
In July, the industry should have built around 30,000 Class 8 trucks based on orders, but only 14,820 were actually produced. This gap between orders and actual output is one of the largest on record.
While the Class 8 sector is struggling, the medium-duty market has been more stable. According to Vieth, this is partly because some manufacturers are shifting chips from passenger vehicles to medium-duty trucks, helping to ease the pressure slightly.
It’s clear that the supply chain crisis is no longer limited to semiconductors. Many other critical components are also in short supply, further complicating production schedules.
Source: ACT Research
The basic law of supply and demand is at play here. With high demand and limited supply, prices are climbing. This trend isn’t unique to trucks—freight shipping, container services, and other transport sectors are also seeing sharp price increases.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The impact of component shortages is felt across multiple industries—from construction equipment to aerospace. Even the used car market has seen dramatic price jumps due to semiconductor shortages.
Source: Manheim Used Vehicle Price Index
Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger has warned that the semiconductor shortage could last beyond 2022. Building new chip factories takes years, and demand often fluctuates rapidly, making it hard for supply to catch up.
"If you’re an automaker and you’re told a chip will take a year to arrive, you’ll order from multiple suppliers," said Harvard professor Willy Shih. "This behavior makes the problem worse."
Semiconductor demand tends to swing wildly between booms and busts. Buyers often stockpile inventory when supplies are tight, which only deepens the imbalance. When the market finally stabilizes, demand drops quickly as companies reduce their excess stock.
Eventually, supply will increase, and demand will slow down. But the process is slow, and the cycle will likely repeat itself in the future.
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ACT Research Cuts Production Forecasts for 2021 and 2022
Takeaway: For the first time in two decades, there's a huge gap between truck orders and actual production. This mismatch is expected to persist for some time.
New and Used Truck Prices Are Set to Rise Further
Takeaway: Long-distance truckload prices are rising faster than at any point in over 15 years, signaling a major shift in the transportation sector.
Takeaway: Used car prices have hit their highest growth rate since 1995. One anecdotal example: a friend recently sold his car for $500 more than he paid three years ago.
Chip Shortages Are Part of a Bigger Pattern
Resources
ACT Research: Used truck prices rise as secondary market inventory trickles
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