Next year lithium battery industry or differentiation

China Securities Network (Reporter Xiao Xiaoqin) The 2016 Senior Engineers Lithium and Electric Vehicles Annual Meeting was held in Shenzhen today. Luo Huanta, Dean of the High-tech Industry Research Institute, expects that after the adjustment of the policy vacuum period in 2016, the lithium battery industry will show a trend of first and then the next year, and the electric vehicle industry chain will usher in hope in the downturn. Integration and differentiation will become mainstream.

The annual output value of lithium batteries is about 112 billion yuan.

According to Gaogong's forecast, the total output value of lithium batteries in China reached 112 billion yuan in 2016, a year-on-year increase of 31.8%. The growth was mainly driven by electric vehicles. Among them, the output value of power batteries increased by 53.9% compared with 2015. This growth rate has fallen sharply from 2015 and is also lower than expected at the beginning of the year, mainly affected by the adjustment of subsidy policies. Energy storage battery output growth rate of 7.7% in 2016, but the volume is small, still in the gestation period.

From the perspective of subdivision, the output value of the four key materials of lithium batteries in 2016 was 34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.8%. The main reason is that the prices of cathode materials and electrolytes have risen sharply; the output of power batteries has increased, driving demand for upstream materials; the localization rate has further increased; the export volume has continued to grow, and the export of lithium battery anode materials has exceeded 15%.

Raw material prices stabilized and fell back

In 2016, lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate continued the imbalance between supply and demand in 2015. Although the price dropped, it remained at a high level, mainly due to the further increase in demand; the lithium mining cycle was longer, and the capacity of new projects was released slowly.

In addition, the price of lithium battery cathode material and electrolyte is affected by the high price of upstream lithium carbonate, which is a certain increase compared with 2015. Luo Huanta expects that the price of lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate will decline with the release of capacity in 2017.

Although the price of power batteries has stabilized and declined in 2016, the gross profit margin of lithium battery companies is generally stable. The main reason is that the scale effect appears, the product qualification rate is improved, and the degree of production automation is improved.

Capital driving force is obvious

As of January-November 2016, the domestic lithium battery industry investment (including the proposed investment) exceeded 120 billion yuan, and the actual investment was 55 billion yuan, of which power battery, cathode material and diaphragm investment were the most. The investment in power batteries and cathode materials is large, on the one hand related to project funding needs, and on the other hand related to market opportunities.

Parallel to investment is a crazy merger. As of the beginning of December 2016, there were 55 domestic M&A projects in the lithium battery industry. The types of M&A cases include: upstream and downstream integration of industries, cross-border acquisitions, and new business development. Among the M&A targets, the lithium materials and equipment industries with higher profits are more concerned. A number of companies have accelerated the upstream and downstream extension of the industrial chain through mergers and acquisitions, and the attention of nickel, cobalt and lithium resources has increased.

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