July micro-customer sales growth rate is close to zero or better after 8 months

In 2009, the micro-customer market (also known as “cross-passenger vehicle”) experienced unprecedented high growth. According to the "domestic sales" (hereinafter referred to as sales, based on which the growth rate is also based on calculations) announced by the CBTF, the sales volume of micro-customers in China for the whole year was 1,939,676 units, an increase of 79.7% over the previous year. The fastest growing category in the car market.

Since 2010, micro-customer sales have continued to grow, but the growth rate has dropped significantly. The average growth rate of sales in the first seven months was only 33.6%. Especially in July, the growth rate of micro-customer sales has been as low as 1.5%, close to zero. (See Table 1)

In fact, prior to the introduction of various preferential policies in 2009, the micro-bus market was at the forefront of the passenger car market and was shrinking. To this end, Rao Da, Secretary-General of the Federation of Travel Unions, wrote in 2007 that "the demise of mini cars is due to policy mistakes." In 2008, the sales volume of micro-customers in China was only 1,056,041 vehicles, only a 5.5% increase over 2007.

In 2009, the high growth of micro-customer sales has a direct bearing on the stimulus policies implemented by the state—purchase tax on purchases, autos going to the countryside, and trade-in replacements. These stimulus policies (including whether consumers' uncertain partial preferential policies will continue in the second year in the second half of the year) have led to a lot of advance consumption and, to some extent, overdraft sales in 2010. Although these policies have continued this year (this year's policy difference is mainly the reduction of purchase tax from 70% to 75%, the new 3,000 yuan subsidy for energy-saving products is also a new stimulus to the growth of minibus market), but in 2009, On the high sales base of the year, the micro-market in 2010 will not reproduce the high growth in 2009.

However, the low growth rate in July will not continue until the end of the year and may only last in August.

From the micro-volume sales volume since 2008 (see Figure 1), July and August are generally the lowest two months of micro-customer sales in a year, and sales in August are generally lower than in July. If this trend continues, in August this year, the micro-bus market will have a lower sales volume than in July. At the same time, because micro-customer sales in July and August 2008 were still negative, sales in July and August 2009 increased by 102.9% and 153.3%, respectively, and the growth rate of micro-customer sales in August may also be similar to that of this year. As low as the month.

After September, the sales volume of micro-customers may increase from the previous quarter, especially in the last few months or due to the end of the national preferential policies. However, because the sales growth rate in September-December was relatively high, the growth rate this year will be relatively sluggish, but it will not be as low as in July.